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💡 Did the US Treasury Just Blink?
Scott Bessent made an announcement that sent shockwaves across US Treasuries and back this week, causing big moves in Gold, Silver and Bitcoin that only…
 • James Lavish, CFA
The Monday Brief: A $432 Billion Month
July's deficit ran 48% above a year ago. The 30-year cleared at the highest auction yield in 25 years. And Walmart reports Thursday.
 • James Lavish, CFA
💡 Are Wages Really Keeping Up With Inflation?
Two charts, both created with data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and two entirely different conclusions. Is either of them even right?
 • James Lavish, CFA
The Monday Brief: The Long End Didn't Take It
28 points came out of September. The 30-year moved 6 basis points. Gold moved 7%.
 • James Lavish, CFA
💡 The Yen Defense: What $87 Billion Actually Bought
Japan and Washington spent the most ever recorded defending the yen. A quarter of it is already gone, and a jobs report did more in one morning. Here's…
 • James Lavish, CFA
The Monday Brief: The Week Washington Bought Yen
Tokyo spent a record. Washington sold euros. The long end sold off anyway.
 • James Lavish, CFA
💡 Is AI's Circular Financing About to Crack?
The AI build-out is running on borrowed money now, and that borrowing has gotten increasingly expensive lately. Here's who's actually on the hook, and…
 • James Lavish, CFA

July 2026

The Brief: The Week Oil Met the Fed
Brent touched three digits for the first time since May, the Fed meets Wednesday with no new projections, and four of the market's biggest spenders open…
 • James Lavish, CFA
💡 The Rent on Money Went Back to Normal
For thirteen years, borrowing cost almost nothing after inflation. That discount is gone, the Fed's new money stops at the short end, and the Chairman…
 • James Lavish, CFA
The Brief: The Market Goes Looking for a Spark
Oil roars back, the chip trade cracks into a bear market, and a split Fed sits nine days from a decision the market just made more difficult.
💡 Is Record Margin Debt an Early Warning of Market Catastrophe?
Wall Street's scariest chart is only half right. The half it gets right is the one that matters.
 • James Lavish, CFA
💡 You Hold Your Own Keys. Who Holds Your Passport?
Flag theory, the Sovereign Individual, and the very practical business of owning a second passport.
 • James Lavish, CFA
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