Could be hedge funds or other investors and/or banks that need exposure to the treasury curve because of a position they have or have lent out. Futures are typically used to hedge another position.
Wouldn’t such a scenario spark a sell off in bonds as a result of weakening in treasurys investors confidence, hence destabilizing the treasury market? And perhaps accompanied by a weakening US Dollar so lost definitely there will be a V shaped recovery in Equities and risk on assets!
I'm beginning to believe that the deficit doesn't matter..at ..all.. There is always some way that thev fed will save the day... That is as long as the global markets are held together with confidence in the USD and there are countries willing to buy our treasuries? We look at doom and gloom scenarios that seemingly never materialize because the biggest superpowers have too much to lose and are the actually game makers?
The deficit matter because it requires the expansion of the money supply and long-term structural inflation to help manage the growing debt piece. AKA the soft default.
Curious to know, James, whether you see the market entry of more and more stablecoin issuers as net Treasury buyers having an impact one way or another.
I believe the US government and Treasury recognize the insatiable appetite for USD exposure and Stablecoins are essential for UST demand in the long term. I expect solid stablecoin legislation soon to support and encourage this.
Possibly a naive question here...why doesn't the federal government limit the amount of leverage that can be used in these trades? If there's risk to it de-stabilizing the Treasury market? Is there a benefit to allowing this leverage to continue...other than hedgies making bank?
Hard to regulate, as ISDA allows great flexibility in haircuts and leverage, and honestly this isn’t really the problem. The ultimate problem is they are not *allowed* to fail, which creates incentive to use more leverage without consequence. It is not a fully free market in this way. The beast is already too big to let free fall without taking down the markets with it.
Some smaller HFs do face consequences, of course. But remember the quote in the newsletter: If you owe the bank $1 million it’s your problem, but if you owe the bank $100 million it’s the bank’s problem.
Seems to me the basis trade may have forced trumps hand to blink with this 90 day pause on “reciprocal tariffs”. Very timely write up and education piece. Thanks!
Great writing, James! But you have said that this would not mean exactly or direct money printing. But how come? 🤔 How would the FED incorporate banks positions, or buy them, without printing out of thin air? Somehow, somewhere, money must be created for the treasuries not to sold at a firesale, right?
Sorry for the technical question from a futures novice...in your example (step 2)...who is the buyer of the Treasury future (100.50)?
Could be hedge funds or other investors and/or banks that need exposure to the treasury curve because of a position they have or have lent out. Futures are typically used to hedge another position.
In a v-shaped recovery from the Fed backstop does the market crash first? I’m confused
If it is allowed to impact the general markets, yes, IMO. A sharp drawdown and quick V-like recovery caused by the Fed backstop.
Heads I win, tails you loose
🎯
Wouldn’t such a scenario spark a sell off in bonds as a result of weakening in treasurys investors confidence, hence destabilizing the treasury market? And perhaps accompanied by a weakening US Dollar so lost definitely there will be a V shaped recovery in Equities and risk on assets!
Well, quite the opposite in that investors would just assume there is a Fed backstop always there to buy Treasuries, regardless of the scenario.
I'm beginning to believe that the deficit doesn't matter..at ..all.. There is always some way that thev fed will save the day... That is as long as the global markets are held together with confidence in the USD and there are countries willing to buy our treasuries? We look at doom and gloom scenarios that seemingly never materialize because the biggest superpowers have too much to lose and are the actually game makers?
The deficit matter because it requires the expansion of the money supply and long-term structural inflation to help manage the growing debt piece. AKA the soft default.
Curious to know, James, whether you see the market entry of more and more stablecoin issuers as net Treasury buyers having an impact one way or another.
I believe the US government and Treasury recognize the insatiable appetite for USD exposure and Stablecoins are essential for UST demand in the long term. I expect solid stablecoin legislation soon to support and encourage this.
Possibly a naive question here...why doesn't the federal government limit the amount of leverage that can be used in these trades? If there's risk to it de-stabilizing the Treasury market? Is there a benefit to allowing this leverage to continue...other than hedgies making bank?
Hard to regulate, as ISDA allows great flexibility in haircuts and leverage, and honestly this isn’t really the problem. The ultimate problem is they are not *allowed* to fail, which creates incentive to use more leverage without consequence. It is not a fully free market in this way. The beast is already too big to let free fall without taking down the markets with it.
Outstanding article James! So do the hedgies ever face the pain of irresponsible gambling?
Thank you Corey!
Some smaller HFs do face consequences, of course. But remember the quote in the newsletter: If you owe the bank $1 million it’s your problem, but if you owe the bank $100 million it’s the bank’s problem.
The largest funds inherently know this.
Seems to me the basis trade may have forced trumps hand to blink with this 90 day pause on “reciprocal tariffs”. Very timely write up and education piece. Thanks!
Great writing, James! But you have said that this would not mean exactly or direct money printing. But how come? 🤔 How would the FED incorporate banks positions, or buy them, without printing out of thin air? Somehow, somewhere, money must be created for the treasuries not to sold at a firesale, right?