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Len's avatar

is the unemployment rate during 1970's and today really apples to apples, aren't alot of ppl dropped from it when the're 'not actively seeking work'

Maybe better to compare labor force participation and we're now similar as 1974-1975. And today's employment is more part time then 1970's (doesn't cover the basics/cost of living). So I would argue we're in worse situation for labor today.. or am I reading things wrong?

Benjamin Pyle's avatar

Great article, James. I actually thought gold did better in the 1970s than you outlined. But AI confirmed your numbers for me.

It pointed out that gold’s performance came in short bursts. It wasn’t a smooth line up. I guess that makes sense in very uncertain times.

James Lavish, CFA's avatar

Thank you Benjamin, I truly appreciate that. And yes, we have a saying on Wall Street that goes, "trees don't grow straight to the sky", same thing with investment performance.

Brian Clavin's avatar

J.

A superb articulation of a Genuine S—t Show.

One thing I think you missed off is the $39 Trillion Deficit vs the early 70’s…the interest rate hike is a Hemlock Cocktail for US and….Oh Yeah…And there’s also that “Spot of Bother “ going on not too far from the Paradise of Dubai.

Last Thing: is there a simple way to track the TIPs Spread??

Thanks & Respect for what You do!

👊🙏

James Lavish, CFA's avatar

Thank you Brian, I truly appreciate that. Yes, I speak about the debt so much that I figure it doesn’t need to be a part of every piece, but it is so true. Great point. As for the TIP spread, the one I used is a Bloomberg calculation, but you can definitely get AI to calculate for you!

Brian Clavin's avatar

AI??? What’s that?? 😉. Teasing aside, will definitely put it on my monitor matrix. Thanks Again!

Jake Hanna's avatar

I did not know the 2-year Treasury was an indicator for cutting rates. I know there may be little real estate inventory in some Northeast markets; however, I think the Sunbelt has plenty coming up and would caution real estate investments in Residential.

James Lavish, CFA's avatar

Hey Jake, yes though residential is a bit different, as it is a choice of lifestyle and less investment purpose, IMO. If you know you are staying put for a while, then it is primarily a home not a vehicle for appreciation. Of course timing can help, especially if you are currently renting and employing capital elsewhere and rates are advantageous. That’s my philosophy anyway.

Jake Hanna's avatar

Yes I agree with you on that. It is best not to buy a house unless you plan on owning it for 5-10+ years. I think that timing the housing market is a good idea as well since it is the biggest expense/investment in most people’s lives.