📡 The Radar: The Week Oil Met the Fed
Brent touched three digits for the first time since May, the Fed meets Wednesday with no new projections, and four of the market's biggest spenders open their books.
📡 Welcome to The Informationist Radar, every Monday before the open. My read on the coming week, so you’re a step ahead of the market.
📈 The setup. The levels, yields, and calendar catalysts I’m watching, and the ones that change the picture if they break.
📶 The signal. What the tape, the balance sheet, and the flows are saying underneath the headlines, and where the week could turn.
Yesterday I talked about which half of the ten-year had been moving. This week the other half gets its turn, and the thing driving it changed direction after Friday's close.
Where we left off
Let’s start with what’s on all our screens.
As of Friday’s close, the dollar sits at 101.47, about a third of a point under the 101.80 line we keep drawing. Gold is at $4,052, and it spent part of the week trading under $4,000. Crude is what moved. Brent settled at $98.25 after trading as high as $101.11 on Friday and giving all of it back, its first look at three digits since May, and WTI finished at $89.31. The yen is at 163.82, weaker than the 162.84 it touched on the first of the month. The two-year closed at 4.34% and the ten-year at 4.68%.
*Correction: Last Monday I quoted gold at $4,108. It closed that Friday at $4,018. My error, apologies.
Oil went up a lot last week, and almost nothing else behaved the way you would expect alongside it.
Now let’s turn to the things that don’t show up on a quote screen.
