The Monday Brief: The Long End Didn't Take It

28 points came out of September. The 30-year moved 6 basis points. Gold moved 7%.

Your Monday compass. What's on my screen, why, and what would change my mind. In your inbox before the open, and four minutes start to finish.

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Yesterday we followed the limited impact of an injection of $87 billion into the yen. This week the debt refunding hits the US auction calendar.

WHAT MOVED

Payrolls printed -23K vs. a survey of +80K, with 103K of downward revisions behind it. The 3-mo average is 20K, from 111K as first reported. So the market repriced September’s hike odds from ~72% to 44%, and took 12 basis points off the implied peak. Everything priced against tighter money moved with it. Nasdaq +5.2%, semis +9.3%, gold +7.3%.

And the long end stood still. The 30-year fell 6.5 basis points, the 2-year six, so 2s/30s closed at 100bps, where it opened. A print that bad usually steepens the curve. Not this one.

THE READ

The refunding answered the question.

Last week we said Wednesday's sizes would matter more than September's dot. Here's the answer.